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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 20 at the 87

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 8-A.Siposs punts 49 yards to MIN 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 39 for 1 yard (27-Z.McPhearson).

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.87 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 87, worth -4.97 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 45, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model