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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 51

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(4:01) 8-A.Siposs punts 40 yards to MIN 11, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-3-Z.Pascal.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.08 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 51, worth -2.04 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 14, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model