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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 53

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(12:01) 8-A.Siposs punts 47 yards to MIN 6, Center-45-R.Lovato. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 10 for 4 yards (3-Z.Pascal; 42-K.Wallace).

The Three Options

GO +0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.71 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 53, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.37 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.69 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP