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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 22

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(3:26) 4-J.Elliott 41 yard field goal is BLOCKED (7-P.Peterson), Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs, RECOVERED by MIN-29-K.Boyd at MIN 43. 29-K.Boyd to PHI 30 for 27 yards (8-A.Siposs).

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.96 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 22, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -1.39 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model