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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 63

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(1:31) 14-R.Wright punts 58 yards to PHI 5, Center-42-A.DePaola, downed by MIN-29-K.Boyd.

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.43 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 63, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 21, worth -1.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model