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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 66

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 14-R.Wright punts 56 yards to PHI 10, Center-42-A.DePaola. 18-B.Covey to PHI 15 for 5 yards (98-D.Wonnum).

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.65 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 66, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 24, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.49 EP