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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 1

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(14:47) 77-D.Faalele reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson FUMBLES (Aborted) at MIA 1, recovered by BAL-28-M.Davis at MIA 6.

The Three Options

GO +4.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.61 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 1, worth +1.25 EP
KICK +2.63 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.09 EP
PUNT +0.64 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model