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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 37

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(5:12) Direct snap to 89-M.Andrews. 89-M.Andrews up the middle to MIA 34 for 3 yards (94-C.Wilkins).

The Three Options

GO +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.83 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 37, worth -1.27 EP
KICK +0.91 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 46, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT +0.61 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model