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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 40

Baltimore Ravens 35 – Miami Dolphins 21

What Actually Happened

(9:16) (Shotgun) 77-D.Faalele reported in as eligible. 8-L.Jackson left end to MIA 41 for -1 yards (52-E.Roberts, 93-T.Flowers).

The Three Options

GO +1.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.35 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 40, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.10 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model