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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 66

Baltimore Ravens 28 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 11-J.Stout punts 45 yards to MIA 21, Center-46-N.Moore. 8-J.Holland to MIA 29 for 8 yards (43-J.Hill).

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 24, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP