Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 73

Miami Dolphins 7 – Baltimore Ravens 14

(6:57) 4-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to BAL 29, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 34 for 5 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).

The Three Options

GO -2.68 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.03 EP
72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 73, worth -4.46 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model