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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 2

Denver Broncos 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:33) 8-B.McManus 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +3.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.33 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 2, worth +0.64 EP
KICK +2.34 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.38 EP
PUNT +0.24 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP