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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 76

Houston Texans 9 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(:17) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short right to 13-B.Cooks.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.19 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 76, worth -1.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 34, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.57 EP