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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 37

Houston Texans 9 – Denver Broncos 16

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short right to 12-N.Collins.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.61 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 37, worth -1.52 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 46, worth -2.11 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.04 EP