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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 14 at the 45

Houston Texans 9 – Denver Broncos 13

What Actually Happened

(9:55) 11-C.Johnston punts 31 yards to DEN 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 12-M.Washington.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.97 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 45, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.54 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 49, worth -2.46 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 12, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model