Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 87

Houston Texans 9 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(1:45) 11-C.Johnston punts 61 yards to DEN 26, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Washington to DEN 38 for 12 yards (29-M.Stewart, 46-J.Weeks). Penalty on DEN-83-A.Beck, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.74 EP
56% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 87, worth -5.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model