4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 6

Houston Texans 6 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(8:36) 7-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 6, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model