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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 14

Houston Texans 6 – Denver Broncos 6

What Actually Happened

(10:27) 31-D.Pierce left tackle to DEN 9 for 5 yards (49-A.Singleton; 22-K.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +3.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.01 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model