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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 6

Denver Broncos 3 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(:23) 8-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-17-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.47 EP
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.55 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 6, worth +0.10 EP
KICK +2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.60 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model