Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 73

Houston Texans 6 – Denver Broncos 3

(4:18) 11-C.Johnston punts 64 yards to DEN 9, Center-46-J.Weeks. 12-M.Washington to DEN 24 for 15 yards (57-K.Pierre-Louis; 46-J.Weeks).

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.74 EP
73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 73, worth -4.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model