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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 6 at the 68

Denver Broncos 3 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 17-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to HOU 33, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-83-A.Beck.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.12 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 26, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model