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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 22

Houston Texans 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(2:23) 7-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.71 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 22, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 32, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model