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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 57

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(:44) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to CHI 6, Center-46-T.Pepper. 18-D.Pettis to CHI 6 for no gain (33-T.Moore).

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.36 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 57, worth -3.26 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 17, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP