Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 79

Chicago Bears 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(2:13) 16-T.Gill punts 43 yards to SF 36, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 3-R.McCloud.

The Three Options

GO -2.59 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.37 EP
75% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model