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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Chicago Bears
4th & 10 at the 45
Chicago Bears 19 – San Francisco 49ers 10
What Actually Happened
(2:37) 16-T.Gill punts 45 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-1.06 EP
-
30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +1.17 EP
- 70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.04 EP
KICK
-0.89 EP
Model's Pick
- 38% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.39 EP
- 62% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT
-0.91 EP
What Happened
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.91 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
