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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 8 at the 54

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Chicago Bears 19

What Actually Happened

(3:43) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass incomplete short right to 44-K.Juszczyk.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.13 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 54, worth -2.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 16, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model