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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 59

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to CHI 16, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 18-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO +0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.06 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 59, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP