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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 7 at the 7

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:26) 9-R.Gould 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 7, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model