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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 59

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(4:52) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 35 yards to CHI 24, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-30-G.Odum.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.97 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 59, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 18, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model