Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 90

Chicago Bears 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(13:55) 16-T.Gill punts 58 yards to SF 32, Center-48-P.Scales. 3-R.McCloud to SF 48 for 16 yards (84-R.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO -2.52 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.86 EP
56% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model