Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 55

Detroit Lions 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

(5:58) 3-J.Fox punts 37 yards to PHI 18, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.98 EP
58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 55, worth -2.63 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model