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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 40

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(7:13) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 11-A.Brown (24-A.Oruwariye).

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.51 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model