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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 40

Philadelphia Eagles 38 – Detroit Lions 35

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to DET 39 for 1 yard (55-D.Barnes).

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +0.97 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 40, worth -1.04 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.47 EP