Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 81

Philadelphia Eagles 38 – Detroit Lions 28

What Actually Happened

(8:31) 8-A.Siposs punts 43 yards to DET 38, Center-45-R.Lovato. 11-K.Raymond to DET 49 for 11 yards (58-K.Johnson; 48-P.Johnson). PENALTY on DET-31-K.Joseph, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DET 38.

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.21 EP
58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 81, worth -4.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model