Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 65

Detroit Lions 28 – Philadelphia Eagles 38

(10:49) 3-J.Fox punts 48 yards to PHI 17, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.92 EP
69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -3.49 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model