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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 1

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(13:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts scrambles right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.41 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 1, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model