4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 26

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(2:46) 3-W.Lutz 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.38 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 36, worth -1.98 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model