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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 47

Atlanta Falcons 26 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(:54) 13-B.Pinion punts 37 yards to NO 10, Center-48-L.McCullough, fair catch by 11-D.Harty. PENALTY on ATL-48-L.McCullough, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 10.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +0.55 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -1.28 EP
KICK +0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.45 EP