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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 9 at the 9

Atlanta Falcons 23 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(12:45) 7-Y.Koo 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 9, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +2.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model