Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 91

New Orleans Saints 10 – Atlanta Falcons 23

(1:55) 4-B.Gillikin punts 59 yards to ATL 32, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-A.Williams to 50 for 18 yards (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.35 EP
56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 91, worth -5.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model