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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 31

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(9:20) 3-W.Lutz 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-4-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.49 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 31, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -2.17 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model