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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 17 at the 82

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(:36) 4-B.Gillikin punts 56 yards to ATL 26, Center-49-Z.Wood. 35-A.Williams to ATL 39 for 13 yards (20-P.Werner).

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.01 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 82, worth -4.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 40, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model