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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 68

New Orleans Saints 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 4-B.Gillikin punts 47 yards to ATL 21, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.74 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 26, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP