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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 65

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 14-R.Wright punts 45 yards to GB 20, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.27 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP