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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 10

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:52) 1-G.Joseph 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 28% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.67 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.38 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model