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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 17 at the 62

Green Bay Packers 7 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(11:58) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 46 yards to MIN 16, Center-56-J.Coco, fair catch by 5-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.81 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 62, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model