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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 55

Minnesota Vikings 20 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 14-R.Wright punts 38 yards to GB 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.65 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP