Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 69

Minnesota Vikings 17 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(:13) 14-R.Wright punts 53 yards to GB 16, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 8-Am.Rodgers. Penalty on GB-51-K.Barnes, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.51 EP
63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 69, worth -2.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model