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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 72

Green Bay Packers 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(3:10) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to MIN 19, Center-56-J.Coco. 5-J.Reagor to MIN 26 for 7 yards (40-T.Galeai).

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.68 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 30, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model