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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 10

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 1-G.Joseph 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-14-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +1.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.16 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.77 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model